Register for the discussion here.
Though I belong to Braver Angels, a national nonprofit committed to depolarization through civil dialogue and action, I’m also a member of my local Braver Angels alliance here in Silicon Valley.
Every quarter we arrange an online discussion via Zoom to talk through timely, often difficult, subjects with people of different viewpoints.
The topic for the next discussion is America’s recent military action in Venezuela.
I’ll be part of the conversation and invite you to attend as well by signing up. You don’t have to be a Braver Angels member or live locally.
Here’s the information:
- online
- 9 – 10:30 a.m. Pacific (11 a.m. Central / 12 p.m. Eastern)
- Sat., Jan. 31
If you can’t attend, I’ve gathered some basic background below and invite you to share your perspective.
One of the core principles of Braver Angels is that democracy works better when citizens wrestle honestly with facts, uncertainty, and disagreement, rather than letting conflict entrepreneurs do our thinking.
If you’d like to find your local Braver Angels alliance, you can do so here.
Venezuela: A Brief Snapshot
Venezuela is located on the northern coast of South America and is bordered by Colombia to the west, Brazil to the south, Guyana to the east, and the Caribbean Sea to the north. Its geographic position gives it access to major Atlantic shipping routes.
The country has a population of roughly 28 million people, though that number has fluctuated in recent years due to a mass migration. According to the United Nations and the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), nearly 7.9 million Venezuelans had fled and were living abroad as refugees or migrants by mid-2025, with the vast majority in neighboring Latin American and Caribbean countries. That represents roughly 20% of Venezuela’s population, making it one of the largest emigration in the world.
Venezuela possesses some of the world’s most extensive mineral and natural resource reserves. Most notably, it holds the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, concentrated largely in the Orinoco Belt. Venezuela also has significant deposits of natural gas, gold, iron ore, bauxite, coltan, and diamonds, making it one of the most resource-rich countries in the Western Hemisphere.
Historically, Venezuela’s economy has depended heavily on oil exports, which at times accounted for more than 90 percent of export revenue. Other exports have included petroleum products, petrochemicals, iron ore, steel, aluminum, and, to a lesser extent, agricultural goods such as coffee and cacao.
As for its democratic history, Venezuela functioned as a representative democracy for approximately 40 years, from 1958 to the late 1990s, following the fall of military dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez. Democratic institutions began to erode after Hugo Chávez’s election in 1998. Many scholars and international organizations argue that Venezuela ceased to be a full democracy by the mid-2000s and had transitioned into an authoritarian system by the 2010s.
How Nicolás Maduro Came to Power
Hugo Chávez was elected president in 1998 on a populist, anti-elite platform and soon set about remaking Venezuela’s political system. Through constitutional changes, nationalizations, and an increasingly centralized executive, Chávez concentrated power in the presidency while tying the country’s fortunes tightly to oil revenues. For a time, high oil prices masked deeper structural problems.
When Chávez died of cancer in 2013, his chosen successor, Nicolás Maduro, narrowly won a special election. Unlike Chávez, Maduro lacked both charisma and broad legitimacy. As oil prices fell and mismanagement worsened, Venezuela entered a prolonged economic crisis marked by hyperinflation, shortages of basic goods, and the exodus of millions of citizens.
Over time, Maduro consolidated power by sidelining opposition-led institutions, jailing or disqualifying rivals, and relying heavily on the military and security services. Elections continued to be held, but many international observers—including the U.S. and European Union—argued they no longer met basic democratic standards.
A timeline of U.S. Involvement
Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have existed for decades, particularly after Hugo Chávez aligned the country with our adversaries and explicitly framed his political project as a rejection of American influence in Latin America.
In the years following Nicolás Maduro’s rise to power in 2013:
- The U.S. imposed targeted sanctions on Venezuelan officials accused of corruption, human rights abuses, and the erosion of democratic institutions.
- Broader economic sanctions followed, especially on Venezuela’s oil sector, with the stated goal of pressuring the Maduro government to negotiate political reforms or step aside.
- In 2019, the U.S. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó, then head of the National Assembly, as Venezuela’s legitimate interim president, arguing that Maduro’s re-election was unconstitutional. This move deepened Venezuela’s internal legitimacy crisis and split international recognition.
- Diplomatic pressure intensified, alongside overt and covert efforts to weaken Maduro’s support among military and political elites.
The situation escalated further after the 2024 presidential election, which the opposition and many international observers argue was won by Edmundo González Urrutia, the unity candidate backed by Venezuela’s democratic opposition. Venezuela’s electoral authorities nevertheless declared Maduro the winner, a result rejected by the opposition and several foreign governments.
A central figure in this period is María Corina Machado, a longtime Venezuelan opposition leader who was barred from running in 2024 but played a key role in unifying the opposition behind González.
Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her sustained, nonviolent efforts to restore democratic governance in Venezuela. She has publicly supported U.S. pressure—and President Trump’s decision to remove Maduro—as a means of enforcing what she and others view as the legitimate outcome of the 2024 election.
Was it against international law for the U.S. to depose Nicolás Maduro?
Most international law experts and institutions say the U.S. action in Venezuela likely violated international law, primarily because it involved the use of force against a sovereign state without lawful justification. Here’s how that is assessed under key legal frameworks:
The U.N .Charter states that all U.N. member states—including the United States—can’t use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state unless:
- the action is taken in self-defense against an armed attack, or
- the U.N. Security Council explicitly authorizes force.
Legal scholars have pointed out that Venezuela did not launch an armed attack against the U.S. that would qualify as self-defense. There was no U.N. Security Council mandate authorizing the U.S. military operation or regime change.
U.S. Perspective: Potential Advantages/Disadvantages of Regime Change
Advantages
- Reintegration of Venezuelan Oil into Global Markets
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves—more than 300 billion barrels—making it a potentially huge source of crude if production can be restored. Also, a friendly government might reopen access to these reserves for U.S. and allied firms, improving long-term energy supply and diversification. - Geopolitical and Energy Leverage
Control over Venezuelan oil could strengthen U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and reduce the sway of rival powers (e.g., China, Russia) that currently buy most Venezuelan exports. It could also support U.S. refiners—especially on the Gulf Coast—that are configured to process heavy crude like Venezuela’s. - Strategic and Economic Expansion
U.S. energy companies could gain access to vast unconventional resources, potentially drawing significant investment and long-term economic activity. Increased production capacity could, over years, help buffer global supply and potentially lower fuel prices if infrastructure is rebuilt.
Disadvantages
- Massive Cost and Time to Restore Oil Production
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has been severely degraded by mismanagement and sanctions. Restoring significant production would likely require *tens of billions of dollars and many years of investment. And even with regime change, meaningful increases in output wouldn’t be immediate, so short-term energy benefits are uncertain. - Humanitarian and Market Risks
Forcible intervention to access oil could further disrupt Venezuela’s economy and deepen humanitarian suffering, fueling migration and instability. Sudden shifts in supply expectations can cause market volatility, affecting global prices and creating uncertainty for producers and consumers alike. - Legal and Ethical Concerns
Using military force primarily to secure another country’s natural resources risks violating international norms and could damage U.S. credibility with allies. Violations of sovereignty can provoke diplomatic backlash. - Geopolitical Backlash
Rivals like China and Russia—which have deep energy and financial ties to Venezuela—might resist U.S. efforts, potentially leading to broader geopolitical tension. A perception of resource-driven intervention could alienate neighboring Latin American states and undermine broader regional relationships. - Market and Environmental Complexities
Venezuela’s crude is mainly heavy oil, which is more expensive to produce and refine, requiring additional processing and investment. Also, a ramp-up in production without strong environmental oversight could worsen pollution and ecological harm.
My questions for you
Are you in favor of the U.S. ousting Maduro, and if so, why?
Do you think the action was legal?
What do you think is the primary reason the current administration took this action?
Do you think this is a one-off maneuver for the administration, or that it might seek to remove leaders in other countries?
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